The cause-effect illusion-confusion | Tom Sherrington

If we knew the precise things that make the most difference in terms of school improvement in order to secure the specific outputs we want, then everyone would be laughing.  We would simply do more of those things and the outputs would improve. Voila! Bob’s your uncle!

However, of course we don’t actually have a precise understanding of the inputs to outputs process so we have to make educated guesses.  That’s all we can do given the state of evidence in our profession.   We make educated guesses about the optimal allocation time to subjects, the nature of our assessments, the nature and…

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